Thursday, October 10, 2013

2013 World Championships by the Numbers: The Ladies



Well, the World Championships are over, and you're probably wondering what to do with your life. By now, you have rewatched the finals at least twice. You have mastered the latest gymnastics iPhone game. You have e-mailed your 200-page doctoral thesis on the state of gymnastics fashion to the appropriate leotard designers and gymnastics federations. You have taken the time to sketch new designs for each individual gymnast, and you have thought about new haircuts for your favorite gymnasts. Basically, you're the gymnastics version of Tyra Banks on America's Next Top Model.

So, what is there left to do? Look at the numbers. Duh. Let's look at the ladies whom the judges thought were the cleanest on the floor…



Execution Averages During All-Around Finals


Name
Execution Average
Execution Rank
All-Around Rank
Kyla Ross
8.883
1
2
Simone Biles
8.829
2
1
Aliya Mustafina
8.694
3
3
Vanessa Ferrari
8.533
4
6
Larisa Iordache
8.417
5
4
Carlotta Ferlito
8.300
6
11
Yao Jinnan
8.192
7
5
Noemi Makra
8.183
8
14
Asuka Teramoto
8.166
9
9
Ellie Black
8.158
10
13
Shang Chunsong
8.100
11
8
Giulia Steingruber
8.075
12
7
Anna Rodionova
8.072
13
16
Roxana Popa Nedelcu
8.067
14
12
Victoria Moors
7.992
15
10
Gaelle Mys
7.939
16
18
Ruby Harrold
7.850
17
17
Elisabeth Seitz
7.766
18
15
Laura Waem
7.758
19
21
Ilaria Kaeslin
7.717
20
22
Noel Van Klaveren
7.541
21
20
Rebecca Tunney
7.516
22
19
Vasiliki Millousi
7.508
23
24
Natsumi Sasada
7.291
24
23
*Neutral deductions for going out-of-bounds on floor and vault are factored into the execution scores.

Commentary:

1. As we saw with the men, execution matters. The top three all-arounders were the best executioners out there.

2. If elegance and execution are synonymous, then, Kyla Ross earned the Longines Prize for Elegance.

3. Those who rag on Simone Biles's execution, please stop. Compared to her competition, Simone's execution was quite good. When you add things up and look at total execution across all four events, Kyla Ross out-executed Simone by only 0.216, and Simone out-executed Aliya Mustafina by 0.540. Heck, during the all-around finals, Simone out-executed Aliya on every single event, including uneven bars. Sure, every single gymnast has room for improvement in the execution department, but most of the criticism seems to be founded on opinions rather than numbers.

4. You have to give Vanessa Ferrari credit. At the American Cup in March, she averaged 8.350 in execution. She went back in the gym and worked to fix her mistakes, especially on beam. The end result: At Worlds, she averaged 8.533 during the all-around finals. Brava, Vanessa! (Unfortunately, for both Victoria Moors and Elizabeth Seitz, their execution scores were significantly lower at Worlds when compared to their execution scores at the American Cup, but Moors got that double-double, didn't she?)

5. Also mad props to Aliya Mustafina, who improved her execution by 1.411 between prelims and finals! (When I talk about the women, I sound like an athletics awards banquet.)





Difficulty Averages During All-Around Finals

NameDifficulty TotalDifficulty AverageDifficulty RankAll-Around Rank
Simone Biles
24.9
6.225
1
1
Yao Jinnan
24.6
6.150
2
5
Aliya Mustafina
24.4
6.100
3
3
Giulia Steingruber
24.3
6.075
4
7
Larisa Iordache
24.1
6.025
5
4
Kyla Ross
23.8
5.950
6
2
Shang Chunsong
23.5
5.875
7
8
Victoria Moors
23.5
5.875
7
10
Roxana Popa Nedelcu
23.1
5.775
9
12
Asuka Teramoto
22.8
5.700
10
9
Rebecca Tunney
22.8
5.700
10
19
Vanessa Ferrari
22.6
5.650
12
6
Elisabeth Seitz
22.6
5.650
12
15
Ellie Black
22.3
5.575
14
13
Carlotta Ferlito
22.2
5.550
15
11
Noemi Makra
22.0
5.500
16
14
Natsumi Sasada
21.9
5.475
17
23
Ruby Harrold
21.8
5.450
18
17
Noel Van Klaveren
21.8
5.450
18
20
Gaelle Mys
21.2
5.300
20
18
Anna Rodionova
21.0
5.250
21
16
Laura Waem
20.9
5.225
22
21
Ilaria Kaeslin
20.7
5.175
23
22
Vasiliki Millousi
19.5
4.875
24
24

Commentary:

1. This table gives you a sense of the lopsidedness in the women's all-around competition. When you average things out, Simone Biles has over a 0.500 advantage on the majority of her competitors on every event, and when you average things out, Aliya Mustafina has a 0.400 advantage on the majority of her competitors on every event. You need to have some pretty janky execution to Fokin up that lead.

2. That said, what this table doesn't show is progress. Some gymnasts have been working their butts off to upgrade. Mad props to Giulia Steingruber, for instance. Sinceprelims at the European Championships, she has upgraded her difficulty by 0.900. Similarly, Noemi Makra upgraded by 0.600 since prelims at the European Championships.

3. Speaking of Giulia Steingruber, could Kyla Ross donate some of her form and consistency to Giulia? And is there a way to make the Chinese gymnasts more consistent? I want stiffer competition in the women's all-around!

4. This year, Simone Biles was the female equivalent of Kohei Uchimura. Compared to their competitors, both have exceptional difficulty and exceptional execution. Sure, there are some differences. Whereas Kohei had the best execution, Simone had only the second best execution, and whereas Kohei had the second highest difficulty, Simone had the highest difficulty. But in the end, Simone Biles won just as many medals as Kohei Uchimura, and as a woman, she has fewer opportunities to win medals (5 finals vs. 7 finals).

As if you haven't seen enough numbers, here's a breakdown of averages by event:

EventAvg. D ScoreAvg. E ScoreAvg. Score
Vault
5.454 (4)
9.010 (1)
14.435 (1)
Bars
5.738 (1)
7.717 (3)
13.442 (3)
Beam
5.729 (2)
7.541 (4)
13.255 (4)
Floor
5.675 (3)
8.020 (2)
13.723 (2)

Let's say you only care about the top 50%, here's the breakdown for the top 12 women in the all-around:

EventAvg. D ScoreAvg. E ScoreAvg. Score
Vault
5.692 (4)
9.101 (1)
14.792 (1)
Bars
6.042 (1)
8.196 (3)
14.211 (3)
Beam
5.958 (2)
7.839 (4)
13.797 (4)
Floor
5.958 (2)
8.336 (2)
14.294 (2)
Commentary:

Congratulations to the ladies! No one fell on vault during the all-around final! That said, if I were part of the Women's Technical Committee, I'd go back and look at those vault scores again. When it comes to the all-around, the vault scores are so much higher than the other events (and there was only one Amanar thrown!)

There are a variety of ways to address this issue: 1. Devalue the vaults, which will undoubtedly upset the United States of Amanar. 2. Try to give out a greater range of execution scores. During the all-around finals, execution scores ranged from an 8.600 (including a neutral deduction) to a 9.566 (Kyla Ross). 3. Pretend like there isn't a vault scoring problem.


+ + + + + + + + +

To conclude this post, here's a mini-UTRS:

The Best Scores in Antwerp

EventGymnastScoreCompetition
All-Around
Simone Biles
60.216
All-Around Finals
Single Vault
McKayla Maroney
15.966
Event Finals
Two Vault Avg.
McKayla Maroney
15.724
Event Finals
Uneven Bars
Yao Jinnan
15.433
Prelims
Beam
Larisa Iordache
15.266
Prelims
Floor
Simone Biles
15.233
All-Around Finals

Quick Commentary:

McKayla Maroney wins the award for best score of the entire competition, but Yao Jinnan wins the award for hardest routine, competing a bar routine with a 6.9 D score.

Oh, and in case you haven't been keeping track, Simone Biles is the only woman who has scored over a 60.000 in international competition this year, and she has done so three times (once at Jesolo and twice at Worlds).


Here's the medal count for the ladies:


1 comment:

  1. Hi Uncle Tim, I was thinking about the importance of vault in women's AA but I came to a different conclusion regarding whether or not anything needs to change. I looked at the top 50 AA gymnasts in the women's qualifying round. D score averages are quite even across all four events when looking at the group in total, the top 24 and 25-50:

    Average D for VT, UB, BB, FX
    Top 50 (5.290, 5.480, 5.552, 5.440)
    Top 24 (5.575, 5.821, 5.850, 5.746)
    #25-50 (5.027, 5.165, 5.277, 5.158)

    However, when looking at the E score - the women competed much cleaner vaults than any other routine:
    Average E Score (VT, UB, BB, FX)
    Top 50 (8.810, 7.820, 7.427, 7.542)
    Top 24 (8.944, 8.048, 7.754, 8.175)
    #26-50 (8.687, 7.609, 7.125, 7.164)

    These E scores include the neutral deductions. Although vault is contributing more to AA scores than the other events, it seems to be contributing to scores of all the athletes equally. The top 24 and athletes ranked 25-50 are largely being separated based on how well they hit the other three routines and by an overall drop in difficulty across all four events.

    Moreover, gymnasts in the top 50 that had high scoring vaults and low difficulty on the other events (Abreu, Netteb) failed to qualify over gymnasts with considerably lower scoring vaults, but higher scores on the other events.

    I would agree that judging, in general, needs to be addressed - but that's across all four events. In consideration of team building, I would bet that vault plays a larger role in deciding Team Qual and Team Finals.

    BTW, thanks for all the great posts this year

    ReplyDelete